16 February 2025

Plausible vs Probabilistic Reasoning

Plausible:

  • Focus on what is reasonable or believable based on evidence: use of commonsense, experience, and general knowledge to derive inference
  • Does not have to be numerical probabilities: qualitative assessment of likelihood
  • Often used in everyday decision-making and problem-solving: see dark clouds then you infer that it will rain
  • Can be defeasible: new evidence that could contradict previous conclusions

Probabilistic:

  • Uses numerical probabilities for uncertainty representation: specific probabilities to outcomes of events
  • Relies on statistical methods and formal logic: based on mathematical models and calculations
  • Is used in fields like science, engineering, and finance: weather forecasts use probabilistic models to forecast rainfall
  • Can be more precise than plausible reasoning: requires more data and computation